2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 odds, picks: Model unveils predictions for Richmond, NASCAR Playoffs

Denny Hamlin sat atop the NASCAR Cup Series standings for most of the season despite not winning a single race. Maybe he was just waiting for the NASCAR Playoffs to break through, as Hamlin won last week at Darlington to clinch his spot in the Round of 12. He will look to continue the momentum on Saturday at the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders from America’s premier short track, the iconic Richmond Raceway.

The green flag for NASCAR at Richmond 2021 drops at 7:30 p.m. ET for the second of 10 playoff races. Hamlin is listed second in the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 odds at 4-1 at Caesars Sportsbook. Martin Truex Jr., who has two NASCAR at Richmond victories since 2019, tops the NASCAR odds at 7-2. Other contenders include Brad Keselowski (7-1), Kyle Larson (17-2) and Chase Elliott (10-1). Before scouring the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At the Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. It also called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout and then correctly predicted the top five drivers at Watkins Glen before nailing seven of the top 10 last week in Darlington. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2021 NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard.

Top 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Kurt Busch, even though he’s a 40-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Richmond odds 2021. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Busch has picked it up in the second half of the season after being buried in the standings through the first half. He has eight top-10s over his last 12 races after posting just two over his first 15 starts.

The veteran driver is as experienced as anyone in the 2021 NASCAR at Richmond starting grid, as he’s been competing on the track for 20 years. He has a pair of victories in addition to five other top-five finishes, so he knows what it takes to be successful here. Busch’s recent stretch and proven NASCAR at Richmond success gives him plenty of value for your 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 bets, according to the model.

A massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., the Vegas favorite at 7-2, stumbles big-time and fails to get the win. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 starting lineup. Truex swept at Richmond Raceway in 2019 and is riding a streak of five consecutive top-five finishes at the three-quarter mile oval into this race weekend.

However, since winning at Darlington in the 2021 Goodyear 400 on May 9, Truex has finished outside the top 10 nine times in the NASCAR Cup Series. He’s also had 17 finishes outside the top 10 in his Cup career at Richmond Raceway, enough to make his current price look suspect in the model’s eyes.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Richmond picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2021 NASCAR at Richmond odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. It also sees value in a massive triple-digit long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400? And which massive triple-digit long shot is a shocking value? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Richmond odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has called several race winners this season and nailed the top five at Watkins Glen

2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 odds

Martin Truex Jr. 7-2
Denny Hamlin 4-1
Kyle Busch 7-1
Brad Keselowski 7-1
Joey Logano 15-2
Kyle Larson 17-2
Chase Elliott 10-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
William Byron 17-1
Alex Bowman 17-1
Christopher Bell 18-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
Kurt Busch 40-1
Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Austin Dillon 75-1
Tyler Reddick 75-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Daniel Suarez 200-1
Cole Custer 200-1
Bubba Wallace 250-1
Chris Buescher 250-1
Ryan Newman 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Chase Briscoe 300-1
Erik Jones 300-1
Michael McDowell 1000-1
Ryan Preece 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Justin Haley 2500-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
B.J. McLeod 5000-1
Anthony Alfredo 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1

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